There have been many competing analyses of the results of the election last Tuesday. I am still trying to absorb the longer-term implications. One of the more thought-provoking pieces I read was from my friends at GaveKal. Four of their writers give us their initial thoughts, and not surprisingly (for them!) they don’t agree. But the piece does give us a broader take on the ramifications. And I love the first line in the lead paragraph (different dreams, indeed):
The American electorate may share the same national bed, but they have vastly different dreams. In this report, our take on the election’s significance is similarly bifurcated. Anatole see it as a cathartic political cleansing allowing for a deal on the fiscal cliff, but Charles as a disaster. Arthur asks whether the Republican Party can win nationally without reconciling itself to America’s changed demographics and the realities of the new knowledge-intense economy. Will Denyer contends that an Obama win is probably bad for the dollar and gold – but he doubts that would have been different with Romney.
I write this afternoon from Buenos Aires, in between media interviews, having done my last speech. Soon, I’ll head to the airport and back to Dallas. Randomly, Grant Williams, who writes Things That Make You Go Hmmm, and his partner Stephen Diggle of Vulpes Management (based in Singapore) will be in Dallas tomorrow night, so I get to connect up. They are at the end of their own three-week road trip, and it will be good to compare notes.
I will be writing about my impressions of Argentina this week, as well as adding a few other observations. While I’m ready to be home for a few days, it has been a most interesting trip. It has made me think a lot about how to deal with governmental chaos, and perhaps more positively than you might imagine. I am now more Muddle Through than ever.
I encourage you to sign up for the free internet “summit” I’m organizing, along with my friends at Real Clear Politics. It’s called “The Post-Election Economy: A Clear-Eyed Analysis of the Risks and Opportunities for Investors.” I’ll be sharing the stage with Mohamed El-Erian, Barry Ritholtz, Richard Yamarone, Gary Schilling, Barry Habib, and James Bianco; and Lauren Lyster of RT America will be moderating. And as a very special part of the event, I will be doing a session with the chiefs of staff for both Senator Harry Reid (current Majority Leader) and Senator Rob Portman (one of the true GOP experts on the budget), discussing together the problems we face as a country.
This event will be a no-holds-barred discussion on where we can expect the economy and investment markets to go, post-election. And most importantly, you'll learn how the unfolding events will impact you and your money.
This 90-minute online video event is completely free to attend. You'll be able to watch directly from your home or office computer. All you have to do to register is visit http://www.PostElectionEconomy.com/?ppref=MEC011TF1112A
Cafayate was far more restful and restorative than I thought it would be. It is muy tranquilo and remarkably beautiful. The town has real character and energy to it, especially in the night life and restaurants ringing the square. The resort of La Estancia de Cafayate is world-class, by even the most discriminating tastes. I can see why so many people are buying property and building vacation homes or moving there as their primary residence. I can guarantee you that I will be trying to figure out how to get back there and stay longer next time.
Spending time with my partners in Mauldin Economics (David Galland and Olivier Garret) while we were there has me energized and excited about all the new things in our (your and my) journey together. Talking with Doug Casey and Terry Coxon and a host of their libertarian friends, thinking and debating about the implications of the elections, has gotten me excited and drifting off down all sorts of intellectual paths. And I did get to read some very stimulating books, which I will write about later.
Right now it’s time for some hard questions from Argentinean TV. The demonstration last night was rather large, and the frustration I felt from all those asking questions is still palpable. I guess 30% inflation can do that to you. Still, they seem to cope, and the restaurants were full late at night. The demonstration did not even start till nine. Quite peaceful, if noisy, with a million people banging away on their pots & pans; and families brought out their children to enjoy the chaos. Rather a surreal moment for your analyst. But a lot to think about.Your trying to see a bigger big picture analyst,
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
Four More Years
The American electorate may share the same national bed, but they have vastly different dreams. Our take on the election’s significance is similarly bifurcated—a cathartic political cleansing allowing for a deal on the fiscal cliff (Anatole) to disaster (Charles). Arthur asks whether the Republican Party can win nationally without reconciling itself to America’s changed demographics and the realities of the new knowledge-intense economy. Will contends…