Outside the Box

Is There a Biotech Bubble?

May 5, 2014

I’m bringing you a special Outside the Box today to address a very specific question that is on many investor’s minds: is there a bubble in biotech? To answer that question, Patrick Cox, editor of Mauldin Economics’ Transformational Technology Alert, teases apart the data on stock performance in the biotech space and then goes beyond the data to show us how the unique characteristics of the sector bear on the question of bubble or no bubble.

The answer isn’t a simple yes or no, but Patrick’s clear, deeply informed perspective can help us make smart investment decisions in an industry where both gains and losses can be precipitous and outsized.

Your ready and willing to be transformed analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

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Is There a Biotech Bubble?

By Patrick Cox, Editor, Transformational Technology Alert

FDA approvals for new drugs have accelerated over the last few years.

In 2013 alone, the FDA approved 27 new drugs. That followed a banner year in 2012, in which 39 novel drugs were approved—the most in 15 years.

Demographic trends will support the need for continued growth in the sector for years to come, as the aging…

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Simon Maughan 48114

May 12, 2014, 10:40 a.m.

The use of probability weighted outcomes is an old pharma analyst trick. But the outcome is black or white, pass or fail clinical trial. Thus the stock shoots beyond the analysts’ valuation when the drug is successful and plummets below when it fails. Your best analysts in this space understand the drug being diagnosed, the size of the market it is addressing and the track record of the drug developer. Stock market valuations are not their strong suit.