This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes his thinking unusually clear and accessible. Gary was among the first to point out the problems with the subprime market and predict the housing and credit crises. You can learn more about his letter at http://www.agaryshilling.com. If you want to subscribe (for $275), you can call 888-346-7444. Tell them that you read about it in Outside the Box and you will get not only his recent 2009 forecast issue with the year's investment themes, but an extra issue with his 2010 forecast (of course, that one will not come out for a year. Gary is good but not that good!) I trust you are enjoying your week. And enjoy this week's Outside the Box....
And if you have cable and get Fox Business News, I will be on Happy Hour tomorrow Tuesday the 17th at 5 pm Eastern. Have a great week.
One of my favorite economists, Paul Kasriel, wrote an excellent article last Friday in his weekly commentary, "The Econtrarian." Not only is it a great "outside the box" analysis but it also follows up to and illustrates several points that I made in my latest e-Letter, "Party Like It's 1999."
At Northern Trust, Paul is the Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research, responsible for producing the Corporation's economic and interest rate forecasts. He is also the recipient of the 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecasting Accuracy.
His article "Festivus Flow-of-Funds Stocking Stuffers," offers us some insight into consumer debt and savings. He further goes on to discuss the trends in both consumer and corporate borrowing (and I should note that he provides some excellent data on both).
I believe you will enjoy Paul's analysis and find it to be both insightful and "Outside the Box."
This week's letter comes to us from Dr. A. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc. Gary is a long time friend and one of my favorite economic analysts.
Gary takes a look at what he has termed the consumer-dependent economy. The consumer has increasingly become a larger factor in driving our economy with the help of debt and loose monetary policy. Savings, GDP, housing, debt, and bankruptcy trends are pieced together to create a bleak picture of the baby boom retirement years. You will find this very interesting food for thought in this week's Outside the Box.