U.S. Consumers: Still Key to the Outlook
May 1, 2012
What I like most about Gary Shilling's economic analysis is that it's thorough. In the piece that follows – an excerpt from Gary's monthly INSIGHT – he ranges from the importance of US consumer spending and the unemployment rate, to the actions of the Fed, to business cost cutting and productivity, to the housing crisis and household debt, to state and local government fiscal issues, to US exports – Etc.! So by time he gets ready to deliver conclusions, you know they're well-supported. And Gary's overall conclusion here, regarding the rest of 2012, is a strong one and maybe not quite what you'd expect.
As part of the deal with Gary to send you his material, he has asked me to offer you the chance to subscribe to his letter. If you like his work as much as I do, I suggest you consider it. Outside the Box readers can subscribe to INSIGHT for the special rate of $275, and you'll receive 13 reports instead of the normal 12, plus a free 10-page Special Report outlining Gary Shilling's investment strategies for 2012. (This offer is available to NEW subscribers only.) To subscribe, call them at 1-888-346-7444 or 973-467-0070, and be sure to mention Outside the Box to receive your special rate and free report.
Your home at last but not for long analyst,
Absolute Zero
September 26, 2011
It was Gary Shilling – way back in the last
century – who first woke me up to the real whys and wherefores of
deflation, with his 1998 best-seller, Deflation:
Why it's coming, whether it's good or bad, and how it will affect your
investments, business, and personal affairs. I had read various works on
deflation, but nowhere was it put together as well as Gary did it. He followed
it up the next year with Deflation: How
to survive and thrive in the coming wave of deflation, and in that one he strongly
urged his readers out of the stock market – just ahead of the 2000
dot-com bubble burst. But Gary has been so
right over the past three decades. (He recently updated Deflation with The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow
Growth and Deflation. It’s on Amazon at http://www.amazon.com/Age-
Today’s Outside the Box is a condensed version of Gary’s monthly INSIGHT newsletter, and in this one he tackles the lack of effectiveness of the Fed’s QE1 and QE2 and delves into the “strange things [that] happen in security, currency and commodity markets that don’t fit normal rules” when the Fed and other central banks take interest rates down close to zero. He notes that at the same time QE2 was fomenting a global commodity bubble and stock-market advances through 2010 and into early 2011, it was also punishing lower-income households with higher food and energy costs, and saddling them with falling home prices “that are likely to drop another 20%.” Crucially, the Fed is “pushing on a string” that, with “the depth and breadth of the financial crisis, the collapse in housing, the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe, Japan’s continuing two-decade-old deflationary depression, the impending hard landing in China, etc. make the monetary policy string much more limp than usual.”
Picking up a theme from his most recent book, The Age of Deleveraging, Gary also examines the question of whether the US is headed for a deflationary depression like the one that has beset Japan for more than two decades. I won’t spill the beans on his conclusion here, but let’s just say that we have our work cut out for us.
If you appreciate Gary’s lucid analysis and want to subscribe to INSIGHT, be sure to mention Outside the Box, and you’ll get 13 issues for the price of 12, PLUS their January 2011 report in which Gary lays out his investment strategies for the year. The price via email is $275, and the address is insight@agaryshilling.com, or you can call them at 1-888-346-7444.
Your loving London but lusting for Ireland analyst,
Hoisington Fourth-Quarter Report
January 17, 2011
Long-time readers of Outside the Box are familiar with the names Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington. They are a regular feature here, as quite frankly, anything that Lacy writes or says I pay serious attention to. This is their regular quarterly report, where they outline seven things that are likely to retard US growth. An easy read, but take the time to think this through.
Hoisington Investment Management Company (www.hoisingtonmgt.com) is a registered investment advisor specializing in fixed-income portfolios for large institutional clients. Located in Austin, Texas, the firm has over $4 billion under management, composed of corporate and public funds, foundations, endowments, Taft-Hartley funds, and insurance companies.
And now let's jump right into the essay.
Your loving wi-fi on the plane analyst,
2010 Investment Strategies: Six Areas To Buy, 11 Areas To Sell
January 18, 2010
This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes his thinking unusually clear and accessible. Gary was among the first to point out the problems with the subprime market and predict the housing and credit crises. His track record in this decade has been quite good. I want to thank Gary and his associate Fred Rossi for allowing us to view this smaller version of his latest letter.
If you are interested in his letter, his web site is down being re-designed, but you can write for more information at insight@agaryshilling.com. If you want to subscribe (for $275), you can call 888-346-7444. Tell them that you read about it in Outside the Box and you will get the full 2010 forecast with price targets, but an extra issue with his 2011 forecast (of course, that one will not come out until the end of the year. Gary is good but not that good!) I trust you are enjoying your week. And enjoy this week's Outside the Box....
Slow Long-Term Growth, And Government’s Response
August 10, 2009
This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes his thinking unusually clear and accessible. Gary was among the first to point out the problems with the subprime market and predict the housing and credit crises. His web site is down being re-designed, but you can write for more information at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). If you want to subscribe (for $275), you can call 888-346-7444. Tell them that you read about it in Outside the Box and you will get not only his recent 2009 forecast issue with the year's investment themes, but an extra issue with his 2010 forecast (of course, that one will not come out until the end of the year. Gary is good but not that good!) I trust you are enjoying your week. And enjoy this week's Outside the Box....
Long-Term Outlook: Slow Growth And Deflation
March 16, 2009
This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes his thinking unusually clear and accessible. Gary was among the first to point out the problems with the subprime market and predict the housing and credit crises. You can learn more about his letter at http://www.agaryshilling.com. If you want to subscribe (for $275), you can call 888-346-7444. Tell them that you read about it in Outside the Box and you will get not only his recent 2009 forecast issue with the year's investment themes, but an extra issue with his 2010 forecast (of course, that one will not come out for a year. Gary is good but not that good!) I trust you are enjoying your week. And enjoy this week's Outside the Box....
And if you have cable and get Fox Business News, I will be on Happy Hour tomorrow Tuesday the 17th at 5 pm Eastern. Have a great week.
Semi-Annual U.S. Economic Outlook: Collapsing On Schedule
December 15, 2008
This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes his thinking unusually clear and accessible.
Gary was among the first to point out the problems with the subprime market and predict the housing and credit crises. You can learn more about his letter at http://www.agaryshilling.com. If you want to subscribe, you can call 888-346-7444. Tell them that you read about it in Outside the Box and you will get not only his 2009 forecast issue but an extra issue with his 2010 forecast (of course, that one will not come out for a year. Gary is good but not that good!)
I trust you are enjoying the holidays. And enjoy this week's Outside the Box.
How to Make Big Money: 11 Time-Tested Strategies
April 2, 2007
This week's Outside the Box will be one of the longer ones that have been featured, even despite the current length being approximately half of what it originally was. Now that's no cause for alarm, yet rather a measure of how important I feel this article to be. In his article "How to Make Big Money: 11 Time-Tested Strategies, "Gary Shilling writes about the methods people have used for wealth creation. We are talking about ways to actually make money.
This is one of the more interesting and thought-provoking pieces that I've come across as of late. Gary provides an excellent and comprehensive overview on many of the strategies that people have used to both create and grow their personal net worth. Some are common sense and some are insightful...but all of the points he makes are proven ways of which fortunes have been made. You can check out more of Gary's work on his website www.agaryshilling.com.
I trust that you will enjoy this exceptional piece.
The Housing Bubble Will Probably Burst
January 9, 2006
This week's letter comes to us from Dr. A. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc. Gary is a long time friend and one of my favorite economic analysts. He also contributed a Chapter to my latest book, Just One Thing, which can be purchased at www.amazon.com/justonething.
In Friday's Thoughts from the Frontline, I mentioned that Gary is less optimistic on the housing market than I am. Gary's January letter looks at 10 nonconsensus investment themes and he spent nearly half the letter on housing and makes a case for why the housing bubble may be headed for trouble. This is a topic that has received a lot of attention over the last couple of years and poses one of the largest threats to the US economy.
This letter may seem longer than most, but that is due to the numerous charts Gary uses to back up his argument. You will find this very interesting food for thought in this week's Outside the Box.
The Consumer-Dependent Economy
August 15, 2005
This week's letter comes to us from Dr. A. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc. Gary is a long time friend and one of my favorite economic analysts.
Gary takes a look at what he has termed the consumer-dependent economy. The consumer has increasingly become a larger factor in driving our economy with the help of debt and loose monetary policy. Savings, GDP, housing, debt, and bankruptcy trends are pieced together to create a bleak picture of the baby boom retirement years. You will find this very interesting food for thought in this week's Outside the Box.
Is Inflation Truly a Threat?
September 13, 2004
Welcome to the inaugural edition of "Outside the Box." Each week, I read hundreds of articles, reports, books, newsletters, etc. Each week, I and my staff will bring you one essay which we think is worthy of your time. The only requirement is that the article should make us think, and perhaps challenge our assumptions. The subject matter will be quite varied and will come from many sources. There will be no requirement that I agree with the writer or the thinking, just that it offer thoughtful analysis which challenge our minds.
The first essay will come to us from my good friend, Gary Shilling, who has been enlightening me with his financial and economic commentary for many years. This letter will certainly be "Outside the Box" for many of you, as it will challenge some basic assumptions you have about the inflation/deflation debate.
Many readers of my weekly "Thoughts From the Frontline" write in to point out that they believe the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported by the government understate the true inflation rate. Gary agrees that the CPI might not reflect the true inflation rate, but claims that the CPI is overstated rather than understated. The argument and data that follows might not change your views, but it will give you an alternate way to think about the CPI. And if Gary is right, that means long term rates may be coming down over time. It also has significant implications for Fed policy and our own investment portfolios.
So lets get ready to think "Outside the Box".