2010 Investment Strategies: Six Areas To Buy, 11 Areas To Sell
January 18, 2010
This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes his thinking unusually clear and accessible. Gary was among the first to point out the problems with the subprime market and predict the housing and credit crises. His track record in this decade has been quite good. I want to thank Gary and his associate Fred Rossi for allowing us to view this smaller version of his latest letter.
If you are interested in his letter, his web site is down being re-designed, but you can write for more information at insight@agaryshilling.com. If you want to subscribe (for $275), you can call 888-346-7444. Tell them that you read about it in Outside the Box and you will get the full 2010 forecast with price targets, but an extra issue with his 2011 forecast (of course, that one will not come out until the end of the year. Gary is good but not that good!) I trust you are enjoying your week. And enjoy this week's Outside the Box....
Magnifying the Trivial
September 11, 2006
Today I am pleased to present to you a very thoughtful piece by John P. Hussman, Ph.D., President of Hussman Investment Trust. John manages the Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund - HSTRX and the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund - HSGFX, where his investment style is more that of a hedge fund than a traditional mutual fund because of his hedging tactics and absolute return philosophy. According to Morningstar, the Hussman Funds have been some of the better performing mutual funds over the past 5 years.
In his weekly market commentary, John explains why he thinks the markets are caught up in the trivial in the midst of a low stakes environment. He further goes on to discuss the current investment climate and its implications for the risk-averse investor. With the current bull market already past the median duration of past advances, I share some similar concerns with John regarding valuations in the marketplace (I touched on these concerns a couple weeks back in my article titled "Fingers of Instability," which can be viewed here).
I trust that you will enjoy this mentally stimulating piece and find it to be another valuable "Outside of the Box" contribution.
Quarterly Review and Outlook: Second Quarter 2006
July 24, 2006
This week's letter is once again from two of my favorite economists, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management Company in Austin, Texas. They specialize in management of fixed income portfolios for large institutional clients by setting long-term investment strategies based on economic analysis. They have been one of the most successful bond managers in the country. (I have no affiliation with them.) I eagerly read all of their writing and analysis, and find it to be some of the most thought provoking anywhere.
Their second quarter 2006 Quarterly Review and Outlook looks at the current economic situation in the US after a 1st half sell-off, inversion of the yield curve and a recession threatening. With the markets "teeter tottering" between excitement and fear, Hoisington's article proves to be both insightful and timely, which is why I picked it for this week's "Outside the Box."
Quarterly Review and Outlook 2005
July 18, 2005
This week's letter is once again from two of my favorite economists, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management Company in Austin, Texas. They specialize in management of fixed income portfolios for large institutional clients by setting long-term investment strategies based on economic analysis. They have been one of the most successful of bond managers in the country. (I have no affiliation with them.) I eagerly read all of their writing and analysis, and find it to be some of the most thought-provoking anywhere.
Their second quarter 2005 Quarterly Review and Outlook looks at the secular forces that are keeping inflation and long term interest down and why that might continue for an extended period of time. They argue that interest rates only look high from a 1945-1990 reference point and that in fact they may now be closer to the long term historical average and that is why I picked it for this week's "Outside the Box."