This week we take a look again at my good friend Peter Bernstein, the venerable editor of Economics and Portfolio Strategy. Peter is the dean of economic writers. (Actually, he is more like the Pope of economic writers, except of course, that he is Jewish.) The first and long time editor of the prestigious Journal of Portfolio Management (now serving as a consulting editor), Peter has been observing the investment world for almost 60 years, after serving as a captain in the Air Force in WW2. During his career, he has rubbed shoulders and influenced the movers and shakers in our world. He is the author of nine books in economics and finance plus countless articles in professional journals such as The Harvard Business Review and the Financial Analysts Journal, and in the popular press, including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Worth Magazine, and Bloomberg publications.
His book, Against the Gods - the Remarkable Story of Risk is one of my top five, you gotta read it books. (www.Amazon.com) His latest book, Wedding of the Waters is a powerhouse of historical economic story-telling about the Erie Canal.
Several weeks ago in Outside the Box we looked at Paul McCulley's piece called "Phyrric Victory" and Bernstein offers his views on the subject by critiquing McCulley. Bernstein sees the expectations on inflation being much different than in the past and adverse surprises may be in our future. It is the risk we don't see that always causes the problems and that is why this article became this week's Outside the Box.
You can find out more about my friend Peter by going to http://www.peterlbernsteininc.com/. His newsletter is a must read for serious investors and institutions.
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
Where Should We Put The Greenspan Put?
Has Katrina caused so much turmoil and disruption that the outlook for monetary policy is a clean break with the recent past? We think not. Shifts may occur, but the same members of the Open Market Committee are still sitting around the same table. Alan Greenspan continues to preside; even though his time is running out, memory of him will linger…