Thoughts From the Frontline, January 2017

Post-Real Economics

January 29, 2017

“Too large a proportion of recent ‘mathematical’ economics are mere concoctions, as imprecise as the initial assumptions they rest on, which allow the author to lose sight of the complexities and interdependencies of the real world in a maze of pretentious and unhelpful symbols.” 
John Maynard Keynes

“Simplicity does not precede complexity, but follows it.”
– Alan Perlis

“Stop trying to change reality by attempting to eliminate complexity.”
– David Whyte...

What I Learned in Washington DC

January 22, 2017

I have been in Washington DC for the last three days. The ostensible reason was to participate in a board meeting of a public company, Ashford Inc. (AINC). We manage hotel REITs that own three hotels here in DC, and the group decided to move our board meeting up a few weeks and hold it in DC during the inauguration. That gave me the opportunity to set up a few meetings to try to gain some insight into what the first 100 days, the first six months, and the first year of the Trump administration...

Forecasting with Friends

January 14, 2017

“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

– Peter Drucker

“Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future. Concentrate the mind on the present moment.”

– Buddha

2017 Forecast: Skeptically Optimistic

January 8, 2017

“Quantity is being confused with abundance and wealth with happiness.”

– Tom Waits

“The shift from sailing ships to telegraph was far more radical than that from telephone to email.”

– Noam Chomsky