Thoughts from the Frontline Archive, July 2025

Inflationary Confusion
  • July 18, 2025

Inflationary Confusion

If you listen to the media—both MSM and social media—it seems like everyone in the world wants lower interest rates.

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Uncertain Moments
  • July 11, 2025

Uncertain Moments

We like to say markets don’t lie. That may be so, but they can certainly send mixed signals.

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At The Crossroads
  • July 4, 2025

At The Crossroads

Happy Fourth of July! I hope you’re enjoying a long holiday weekend. That’s what I am doing, so this letter will be a little different.

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The Coming Supercycle Crisis

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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.

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