Thoughts from the Frontline

Don’t Confuse Me With the Facts

By John Mauldin

December 3, 2004

Don’t Confuse Me With the Facts
The Emotional Contrarian
That Most Emotional of Metals
The Dollar - Oversold or Overwrought?
The Sleeper Dollar Event
The Balance of Financial Terror
Your Personally Autographed Bull’s Eye Investing

Why do we do the things we do? How can two people, or even large groups, look at the same set of facts and come to such widely different conclusions? Maybe even more important would be to ask why? Is there some bias involved? Does being a "professional" help you avoid these biases? We will examine these questions and more, and end with a few comments on the important and very strategic sleeper event you probably missed this week. It should be a fascinating letter.

Warning: some of the studies which I discuss can (or at least should) give rise to some serious soul-searching for your own personal biases. This latter activity is best done at night with good friends and your favorite adult beverage. Since the holidays are coming up and we tend to look for reasons to get together with friends anyway, this process will simply help you on your way to finding your own Inner Spock.

And speaking of the Holidays, at the end of this letter, I tell you how to get the perfect Christmas gift for your investor friends and clients: a personally autographed (an individually personalized) copy of my New York Times Best Seller book, Bull's Eye Investing.

But first, a few announcements. As many of you know, my "real" business is researching and finding hedge funds for investors. Investors who are accredited investors (basically…

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