The Doom and Gloom Fed

Today we explore the very interesting differences between what the Fed told us about its last interest rate cut and what they actually said in the meeting. Then we look at my analysis of how Japan can have deflation when the money supply grows 21%, which will annoy the gold bugs among my readership. Then we look at why gold is really going up, and why it will continue to do so, which will make gold bugs happy. All that and more, as along the way we look at why it is so hard to predict anything with any sense of confidence.

Smoke in The Fed's Eye

I was reminded today of the great line by Paul McCulley of Pimco: "Philosopher kings, like Mr. Greenspan, know that some things are best left un-estimated, un-forecast, and un-said. Unless, of course, there is no choice, in which case euphemism, obfuscation and smoke-blowing should be the tools of first resort."

We examine a case in point, where smoke is the tool of choice. The Federal…