Thoughts from the Frontline

The Problem of the Endgame

By John Mauldin

January 14, 2005

The Problem of the End Game
One Last Thought on the Trade Deficit
Broken Relationships
Party On, America!
China, California and a Few Details

Last week we looked at my 2005 Forecast. This week, we ponder the far more interesting question of where I could (or will be!) be wrong and why and what would be the consequences.

This week's topic came about as I was talking on Tuesday with Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management Company. He and Dr. Lacy Hunt had just published their 2005 Forecast and I considered it quite thoughtful. I called to ask if we could use it for next Monday's Outside the Box.

He had just read my forecast, and noted that we disagreed in a few areas. "That is precisely," I noted, "why I want to use it. Outside the Box is supposed to be about different ideas." While I think long term rates will go up, he and Hunt think they will be essentially flat or maybe even drop. We talked about this and some other scenarios, with both of us noting that we could…

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