Outside the Box

Update on Globalization

June 22, 2016

Globalization is one of the dominant economic forces in the world today and given the politics of the world it is also one of the most controversial. Globalization has been one of the leading forces of overall global growth and is continuing to grow, albeit at a slower pace, yet the forces which would roll back or hinder globalization are increasing as well.

My friend Ian Bremmer, professor at New York University and founder of the Eurasia Group, is one of the foremost authorities on geopolitical trends in the world. In addition to the previous link, they have a comprehensive Wikipedia page. The Eurasia Group’s clientele base is a who’s who of large corporations, funds, and other organizations. They have an all-star group of advisors and personnel. They produce a large volume of materials on a wide variety of geopolitical topics.

Ian himself writes a weekly letter that hits my inbox on Monday morning and takes the form of a weekly briefing on global events. Two weeks ago Ian wrote a very solid essay on the issues surrounding globalization. This letter is normally seen only by his private (very-high-paying) clients, but he has graciously allowed me to make it this week’s Outside the Box. I think you will find it highly informative and well worth your time.

I am in Dallas, working away in a hopefully productive manner, but will stop a little early tomorrow afternoon to begin to prepare chili and all the fixings for my Brexit party tomorrow evening. The recent polls don’t make it look quite as close as it did last week, but things are rather fluid in the United Kingdom, so we’ll see who comes out to vote. And speaking of Brexit and parties, my friend Neil Howe, author The Fourth Turning and subject of last week’s Thoughts from the Frontline, is flying in to be here and sent me this interesting note:

Not really in my wheelhouse to cover this stuff hour to hour. But after a new poll came out 2 hours ago showing Brexit ahead by 1 percent, the FTSE and FXB turned south. If Brexit wins, or if it is even close, there’s going to be a lot of investigating about whose money is skewing the betting odds. It’s a multitude of small-money individuals on one side and a few big-money London financial houses on the other.

Don’t you just love conspiracies? They make everything so extra-special juicy… Have a great week. And now I’ll let you move right on to Ian’s essay.

You’re worried about protectionism analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

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Update on Globalization

By Ian Bremmer

This weekend witnessed the worst mass shooting in the history of the United States. It will also surely be the most politicized. Some 50 dead at the hands of a self-declared ISIS supporter with an automatic assault weapon, in the midst of the most polarized presidential election the country has experienced in the post-war period.

The responses are divided strongly along political lines: the left focusing on gun…

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Comments

mike_bradley@mentor.com

June 23, 8:55 a.m.

Can’t we simply say:

* Technology enables greater globalization
* The world is currently on a downward economic cycle
* The people negatively affected react by blaming those in charge.  This is often called “populism”.
* Since the affected do not have global influence, this is a force for decentralization.
* Only until the overall global economy improves will the forces of decentralization diminish
* Immigration is simply “The grass is greener on the other side”

My conclusion, is the topic of globalization vs. decentralization, is a result of economics.  The anti-establishment sentiment (Trump, Sanders, Brexit, etc.) is also a result of economics.

If global economics is on a downward slide, then local economic ecosystems try to compensate (If I can’t sell overseas, then I change business plans to sell domestically).

The idea that these two are to diametrically opposed forces (global vs. decentralized), IMO is a red herring.

DerWanderer

June 23, 4:52 a.m.

“The fastest recent migration growth has been in refugees– generally forced by climate change and/or conflict”

Wrong. The migration have nothing to do with climate change. There’s no climate change.

“Decades of limited cooperation among central governments in a series of failed global summits – all the while extreme climate conditions created greater human impact –
has led non-governmental actors to take up a leadership role in the climate change agenda,notably creating incremental but meaningful success in last year’s Paris
meeting. It’s the first meaningful example of
a global crisis creating progress (albeit to date limited) toward global governance.”

Read: Multinational global players funded hysteria from NGOs propagating the lies of climate change narrative to forward globalization via “rule space”.

What’s more perfect than The “Climate change” narrative, with it’s huge economic externalities implication, to provide the pretext to compel national sovereignties to global supra national rules.

And once broke, national Sovereignty stands to cede more and more into subordination to global organizations controlled by a elite bureaucratic stratum of global corporate players. A reiteration of the so called Monnet Method used to create and consolidate the Europe Union irrespective of the wills and on the backs of the unsuspecting citizens of Europe. It’s a dystopia.

“The fault lines undercutting the prospect of globally unified standards”
What the author mean is globally unified proprietary standards (oligopoly/monopoly) are
are been hindered by competition. It’s a fault line, let’s eliminate competition then?! To see competition as a fault line to supposed gold standard of homogeneity. is a fanatical adherence of globalization.

Populism/nationalism…. the usual pejorative connotation of deglobalization and nationalism to populism. The piece conflate any anti-globalization argument as a populist argument.This is not thoughtful, it’s name calling.

“the ability for consumers to have access to information flows from all over the world, with virtually no (direct) cost to the individual. But filtering and segmentation of information is at least as important a global trend, and it firmly weighs on the deglobalization side.”

Malfeasance from giant global corporation should stand omitted. Manipulation on the part of global corporate giants like Google, Facebook,Microsoft and Amazon using not only filters but also psychology sophisticated “manipulators” like “reciprocation” “commiting”, “social proof” and many others.

In all a brilliant assessment of Globalization battle scenario. Wrote by a very much brilliant serf of his corporation global clients. Filled here and there with a not so subtle globalization propaganda by pejorative
connotation and, of course, omissions of their bad and unacceptable aspects.

Kristin Bayless

June 23, 3:05 a.m.

While this was written more from a “stream of consciousness” perspective, I appreciate hearing both sides of the equation. I tend to agree about the trend toward deglobalization, at least in the US.  Two things struck me as I read this. First, I’d like John’s opinion on what deglobalization would mean for the typical middle class investor, and second how it will feel and affect our lives if the US pulls back, but if avenues of globalization between other countries forge ahead, as suggested in the article.

Ralph Costantini

June 23, 12:48 a.m.

First… I might add Professors that know about the world, don’t seem to know Jack about Firearms! The weapon used in Orlando was NOT an automatic weapon. Automatic weapons (i.e. machine guns) are neither legal in the US (unless you have a special licence) nor are they readily obtainable. The AR-15 is semi-automatic… one trigger pull, one bullet. That type of firearm is the dominant type of non-military firearm in the world today. It’s been around since Browning invented the 45 caliber semi-automatic pistol in 1911!!!

Second… Globalization is not the main reason the the US middle class is taking a beating… ridiculous regulations, forced unionism, noncompetitive business tax rates, and near term corporate greed are at the heart of the issue. The labor content in modern manufacturing plants is on the order of 3%! The higher costs of labor in the US would not make up the cost of shipping!

Third… I agree with other commentators that Free trade is neither Free nor Fair! While that is an interesting ideal… it just ain’t so!

ammariani@bellsouth.net

June 22, 8:24 p.m.

Wounded Knee was the worst mass shooting in US history.  And he did NOT have an automatic weapon (fires more than one round with each trigger pull and which are generally unavailable to the general public).