Thoughts from the Frontline Archive, August 2025

Inflationary Questions
  • August 15, 2025

Inflationary Questions

Last week I compared our jobs data, which is sometimes questionable, to World War II weather forecasts. Those were also questionable but necessary anyway. The generals needed them “for planning purposes.”

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Soft Data Hardens
  • August 8, 2025

Soft Data Hardens

I remember when August was a slow month. School didn’t start until after Labor Day. Even in my adult days in the investment world, not much happened. People were either on vacation or coming back and getting ready for September. It’s hard to believe, but nobody really cared about Jackson Hole in the ’80s or ’90s. And it had several venues up until 1981 when it became “Jackson Hole.”

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Prepare to Muddle Through?
  • August 1, 2025

Prepare to Muddle Through?

I am widely known as the “Muddle Through” guy. The giant US economy is part of an even larger global economy that doesn’t change direction easily. Major shifts occur slowly, even when presidents, central bankers, and CEOs want otherwise. They don’t have nearly as much power as they may think.

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The Coming Supercycle Crisis

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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.

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