Outside the Box

The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power’s Struggle with Geography

John Mauldin

August 11, 2011

Just last week in Thoughts from the Frontline, we discussed the relative valuations of emerging markets. Any discussion of an emerging market is incomplete without understanding the underlying geopolitical forces that guide behaviors of countries and often predetermine the outcome of events. 

Today I'm sending you STRATFOR's geopolitical analysis of Brazil, a much-discussed emerging market. This is a long read, but it's the most thorough and enlightening analysis I've seen thus far on how the continent's geography has shaped Brazil's history to date, and the major challenges the the country faces today. Hint: Brazil's biggest problems are an overvalued "real," Mercosur, and an Asian giant (you guess which one...). 



For anyone considering an emerging market as an investment choice (or who is simply interested in world affairs), I highly recommend reading STRATFOR's other geopolitical assessments, which they have on all the major players, including emerging markets. You can access these assessments, and all STRATFOR's analysis and updates, when you subscribe. OTB readers can <<get a hefty discount on their subscriptions here>>. Their content is a valuable asset for any investor. 



Your now considering samba lessons analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

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The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography

July 14, 2011

Editor's Note: This is the 15th in a series of STRATFOR monographs on the geopolitics of countries influential in world affairs.

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Comments

Ed Remmell

Aug. 16, 2011, 7:27 p.m.

Great article! This is the best free information I’ve ever gotten in my in-box.

Evandro Menezes

Aug. 13, 2011, 5:50 p.m.

As a Brazilian, after reading this article, in spite of 3 minor historical errors, I finally understood the Brazilian economic challenges from 10,000ft. 

In spite of growing up in Brazil into my adult life, though I had all the information that someone on the ground could get, besides being deep in the maelstrom raising a family to form the whole big picture, I also lacked the economic knowledge that I’ve enriched in the past decade. 

I’m happy to say, now that I live in the US and can look at Brazil from the outside, that this article has allowed me to synthesize the geography, history and economics of Brazil in a much more complete view.

PS: all the oxygen produced and the CO2 absorbed in the Amazon is cycled locally.

Jon Anderson

Aug. 12, 2011, 9:01 p.m.

I was thinking a similar thing.  What is the “market value” of all of the oxygen that those rainforests are producing, and of all the carbon dioxide they are soaking up?

Thanks, and keep up the excellent work.

Zak Klemmer

Aug. 11, 2011, 11:55 p.m.

America could use a Real Plan, i.e., low inflation, low debt and economic growth. Perhaps we could lend Brazil our Constitution and we could implement their real plan.

david caccia

Aug. 11, 2011, 10:25 p.m.

A very interesting look at Brazil.  I find it distressing that you think the Amazon Jungle is a thing to be cleared, a drag on Brazil’s economy.  It has been said that a strong economy is worthless without a healthy environment.  The Amazon is important to keeping the world climat stable, and Brazil’s climate also.  Without the jungle, the area could become a desert, not even good for farming.
David Caccia

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