Thoughts from the Frontline

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Latest Articles

Tension in the Sandpile
  • May 9, 2025

Tension in the Sandpile

I’ve been writing about tariffs for a couple of months now, focusing mostly on the macroeconomic harm and the costs they impose on small businesses. Today I want to consider something else: the new risks they are adding to the financial system alongside the old risks. We had a small taste of it when markets convulsed in early April. That episode passed, but I don’t think the risk is gone. Different and potentially worse may be coming, as the disruptions compound.

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Soft Data Gets Softer
  • May 2, 2025

Soft Data Gets Softer

Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.

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Tariff-Induced Paralysis
  • April 25, 2025

Tariff-Induced Paralysis

In some kinds of surgery, it is necessary to keep the patient extremely still because even small, involuntary movements can cause damage. Anesthesiologists administer “paralytic” drugs so the surgeons can do their work safely. Thus, a condition we would normally dread actually helps restore us to health.

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The Uncertainty World
  • April 18, 2025

The Uncertainty World

Markets don’t like uncertainty. It is a cliché, but for a very good reason. It is more than a truism. In fact, businesses don’t like uncertainty. You and I don’t like uncertainty in our personal lives. When we go to the store, we want to be certain that what we are looking for is there, and at a reasonable price. We want our food orders to be certain. We want our relationships to be certain. In fact, the relationships we value most are the ones in which we feel certain whether it’s personal,...

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Thoughts from the Frontline explores developments overlooked by mainstream news and analyzes challenges and opportunities on the horizon.

The newsletter began as John’s way of sharing his thoughts with a few associates. Two decades later, it is one of the most widely read investment newsletters in the world. From his warning of an impending recession in 2000, to a polemic on the Obamacare “death spiral” in 2016, John has blazed his own trail as one of the most respected macroeconomic minds in the field.

"Central bankers, businessmen, and investors continually try to beat History to a pulp, but History always wins the final rounds."

John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline, 2001.
Thoughts from the Frontline
Thoughts from the Frontline

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John Mauldin

John Mauldin

Editor, Thoughts from the Frontline

When investors, financial professionals, and discerning citizens need a big-picture view of what's going on in the economy, they turn to John Mauldin.

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The Coming Supercycle Crisis

Before you go... Grab a free copy of John Mauldin's The Coming Supercycle Crisis

The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.

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