The Return of Muddle Through

The dollar reaches new lows. The housing market shows no sign of a bottom. Oil almost touches $84 before backing off. Interest rates go up after the Fed cuts. So naturally the stock market keeps climbing. But then, consumer spending came in strong, employment looks like it may be ok, inflation (at least by one measure) came in below 2%. This week we look at the question of whether you could have a continued bull market and a recession. (Maybe.) We look at the bigger picture for the dollar and interest rates and examine the ugly data from the housing sector. Inflation or deflation?

But before we get started into what should be an interesting letter, let me thank those who completed my reader survey last week. Over a thousand of you gave specific comments and I looked at every one. If you didn't take the anonymous survey yet, but would like to, just click this link. All I really know about 99.9% of my readers is an email address. The survey is just a few questions which gives me an idea of the audience I am writing to and some feedback on how I'm doing. And feel free to make comments at the end in the space provided.

As my gift to you for taking the time, when you finish the survey you will be given a link to the audio of a speech by Dr. Mike Roizen, the author of You, The Owner's Manual and a dozen other blockbuster best-sellers. He spoke at my Strategic Investment Conference this spring (co-hosted by Altegris Investments) on "How to Stay Young - Getting Your Body to Give You a Do-over." (If you can't listen when you finish the survey, save the link.) Thanks.

Inflation is Not a Problem - Until It Is

The Fed cut its fund rate by 50 basis points and the stock market has rejoiced. But the bond vigilantes came out in full force. The last three times the Fed initiated a new easing cycle, ten year bond yields typically dropped 20 basis points or more in the next five days. This time they rose by 20 basis points. Since mortgages rates…