Outside the Box, January 2005


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Emotion, neuroscience and investing: Investors as dopamine addicts

January 31, 2005

Once again we look at one of my favorite analysts and behavioral finance thinker, James Montier of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London. James wrote a fascinating book two years ago called "Behavioural Finance: A User's Guide" and puts out ongoing research like the one we will enjoy today. Long time readers will recognize the name because I have discussed many of his ideas in my weekly letter "Thoughts From the Frontline," my book "Bull's Eye Investing" and in "Outside the Box." While the...

Shades of Irrational Exuberance

January 24, 2005

Readers know that Paul McCulley of Pimco, and his cohort Bill Gross, are two of my must read economic analysts. Pimco is in Newport Beach California and oversee more than $400 Billion in assets, predominately in fixed income.

Last week my weekly letter called "The Problem with the Endgame" quoted some of Paul McCulley's January 2005 Fed Focus letter. This article was so interesting that I decided to make it this week's Outside the Box. The letter is a little longer than normal, but well worth...

2004 Quarterly Review and Outlook

January 17, 2005

This week's letter is once again from two of my favorite economists, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management Company in Austin, Texas. They offer a view on bonds which, as Van noted in a conversation with me this week, disagrees with my 2005 forecast of last week. It is important to read well-reasoned opinions which disagree with your own, which is one of my foremost thoughts when selecting each week's article for Outside the Box.

And there are reasons to pay...

The Sure-Thing Syndrome

January 10, 2005

This week I put out my 2005 forecast that called for a See-Saw Economy. The theme being that the economy will not take off or crater but continue to move along at a relatively slow upward pace. There will be an end game to this cycle, but I don't see it this year.

One of my favorite economists, Stephen Roach, of Morgan Stanley gives us an insight into what one of the major components of that end game will look like. Let's take a look at his comments on the end of the carry trade and the...

Saving for a Rainy Quarter Century

January 3, 2005

As we begin the year, it is traditional to think about the future. Today my good friend, Dr. Gary North, helps us to think far into the future, about our plans for retirement. This is one you should forward to friends and family who have yet to begun thinking about how they will live out the last part of their lives.

This note from the December issue of Retirement Plan Advisor literally crossed my desk as I was getting this issue of Outside the Box ready.

"Data from a new study of the recently...