Outside the Box, February 2005


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The BoK’s Announcement & the US$

February 28, 2005

This week we will turn once again to a group headquartered in Hong Kong called GaveKal Research Limited. Louis Vincent Gave's GaveKal Ad Hoc Comments for Wednesday, February 23, 2005 looks at the possible implications of the recent announcement by the Bank of Korea to diversify their holding away from the US dollar.

He uses the term "sterilize" a lot, and it is important to understand this process. Countries sterilize their currency to maintain fixed exchange rates and Investopedia.com defines...

Fed Pause Now Seen Later Rather Than Sooner

February 21, 2005

This week's letter is from another one of the country's top economic analysts, Paul Kasriel of The Northern Trust Company. Kasriel is Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research, responsible for producing the Corporation's economic and interest rate forecasts. He advises the Bank's Assets-Liabilities Committee as well as the Corporation's Investment Policy Committee.

I am a big fan of Kasriel, and look forward to reading his outlook, as it always gives me an insight or two. His...

Global Financial Markets

February 14, 2005

In a past Thoughts From the Frontline letter, I quoted some economic forecasts from a group in The Netherlands called ECR Research. ECR is an independent financial research group with a team of analysts and economists specializing in medium-term developments in interest rate and currency markets. ECR supplies their research to some of the top financial financial insitutions in the world.

ECR's Global Fiancial Markets report from February 3rd takes a look at the current situation in the U.S....

Inflation is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon

February 7, 2005

A few weeks ago, I posted a letter by Dr. Gary shilling on why he thinks there is deflation in our future. For another look at the inflation-deflation debate, this week's letter is by Myles Zyblock, who is Chief Institutional Strategist & Director of Capital Markets Research at the Royal Bank of Canada. Myles takes a look at why we have not seen a big increase in inflation even though the Fed has added vast amounts of monetary liquidity since the late 1990's. Milton Friedman's equation of...