Outside the Box, April 2005


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State of the Markets: A Minsky Review

April 25, 2005

This week's letter is from my good friend Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research in Dallas. Ed helped co-author a couple of Chapters in my book "Bull's Eye Investing" and that inspired him to write his own book. Ed's recently published, a must read book in my opinion, is called "Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles."

This article uses some of the insightful research in the book to examine current market conditions and why Ed thinks the "Four Categories" are pointing to a...

Economic Reforms Sacrificed For Political Gains

April 18, 2005

This week we will turn once again to a group headquartered in Hong Kong with offices in Stockholm and New York called GaveKal Research Limited. Louis- Vincent Gave's GaveKal Ad Hoc Comments for Friday, April 8, 2005 looks at the political and economic climate in Europe and what that might mean for the Euro and European government bonds.

The European Union, now with a few years behind it, is looking to make some changes and as we have seen throughout history, what is good politically is not...

Don’t Discount Discounted Dividends

April 11, 2005

This week's letter is from John P. Hussman, Ph.D., President of Hussman Investment Trust. His firm is one of the few that has employed hedging techniques, similar to the hedge fund world, in a mutual fund structure. John is also one of the really, really, really smart guys in the running money business. John manages the Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund - HSTRX and the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund - HSGFX.

Hussman's Weekly Market Commentary on March 21, 2004 takes a look at the importance of...

An Asset Allocation Strategy For The Intelligent Investor

April 4, 2005

This week's report is about some research finding from a group in Bellevue, Washington called Evergreen Capital Management, LLC. They have built a proprietary model that is used to predict when mutual fund styles (large-mid-small capitalization, value-growth) are being overbought or oversold. They believe that their model is quite good at predicting returns relative to the overall market over the subsequent two years.

This report does an excellent job of weaving together many of the themes from...