Outside the Box, May 2007


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U.S. - China Relations

May 24, 2007

As the forth largest economy in the world, the rapid growth of Communist China' military, and economic prominence has both perplexed and intrigued the United States. Stratfor analyst Rodger Baker addresses the two primary economic concerns troubling Washington and Wall Street alike: the Chinese-U.S. trade imbalance, and the floatation of the renminbi, currently pegged at 7.8 Yuan to the dollar, though allowed to fluctuate 2-3%.

Washington has identified the currency dilemma as the primary...

How We Learned to Stop Worrying (so much) and Love "Da Bomb"

May 21, 2007

Humans, by nature, tend to let things worry them a bit more than they ought to. Whether it's a job situation, relationship issue or investment decision, we all tend to blow the small things out of proportion and lose sight of the bigger picture at hand. In this week's Outside the Box, PIMCO Managing Director Bill Gross does an excellent job at explaining why we need to worry less and grab a hold of some of the larger trends behind today's markets.

In his article "How We Learned to Stop Worrying...

An Optimistic Route to a Poor Market Outlook

May 14, 2007

Value is a big and well-known strategy within the investment world. Many analysts and investors alike rely heavily on the P/E ratio as a metric to determine the value of a stock, indices or other form of security. But just as with any other investment metric, the data can be skewed if not viewed within the proper context. This week's Outside the Box is by John Hussman where he discusses the importance of analyzing P/E ratios under the backdrop of the earnings cycle. John shares his view...

Serbia’s Choice

May 10, 2007

This week's Special Edition of Outside the Box is written by Peter Zeihan and highlights the looming indecisiveness of Serbia's political parties. Going back over the past decade, Kosovo and Serbia used to be a couple of hotspots. While there is not any immediate turn of events, Serbia has been in a state of de facto policy that is beginning to build to a sort of tipping point for the country's leadership.

These Special Edition reports are provided courtesy of George Friedman and the rest of...

So What Should We Worry About?

May 7, 2007

Today's Outside the Box is a very interesting piece written by Louis-Vincent Gave and the team at GaveKal entitled "Part 2: So What Should We Worry About?" His article is a follow up to an earlier one that he wrote on why he, and the rest of the GaveKal team, had been bullish on the markets a couple of months ago. This letter is to answer the question "what could go wrong" with their previous outlook in light of the recent market climate.

For those of you unfamiliar with GaveKal, the firm was...