Outside the Box, September 2007


Outside the Box was retired on April 25, 2018, to make way for the new and improved premium research service, Over My Shoulder.

If you’re interested in joining John Mauldin, Patrick Watson, and the thousands of Over My Shoulder subscribers as they analyse important research several times a week, please click here to find out how you can subscribe for less than $10 per month.

Israel, Syria and the Glaring Secret

September 28, 2007

One of the things I found out in my recent survey of readers is that many of you really like the special Outside the Box I send every now and then from George Friedman and Stratfor. I share your enthusiasm for the really unique world view that George and his team bring to us. This week's special Outside the Box is no exception to the quality and uniqueness of analysis that George brings to us.

I have found it very strange that no government is talking about the air strike that Israel did a...

Do Not Forget About Changes in Velocity

September 24, 2007

This week in Outside the Box, Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, and company of GaveKal Research delve into the underlying misconceptions that presumes money velocity is and will remain constant, in the equation that says MV = PQ (Money*Velocity = Prices*Quantity) when M is increased. GaveKal Research strive to show that in application this relationship does not hold, and that investors ought to look to velocity to rebound to gauge market recovery or further...

Here Comes A Whale

September 17, 2007

My friends have at GaveKal have been whale watching for some time. But not for Blue whales or in an ocean. There theory is that Central banks keep throwing dynamite (in terms of liquidity) into the ocean during credit problems, watching little fish die and don't stop until a whale floats to the surface, thereby giving a signal that the credit crisis is close to being over. They think they have spotted that whale.

This week in a very interesting and decidedly different Outside the...

War, Psychology and Time

September 13, 2007

This week in a Special Outside the Box, George Friedman of Stratfor reflects upon September 11th, a monumental date in our country's history. George strives to discern the current and future ramifications of US military presence in the Orient, posits what - if any - reasoning stands to support and drive Osama Bin Laden's underlying motives and actions, and the impact the tragic event and our response have upon the American psyche.

This Stratfor piece is an objective, thought-provoking...

Teton Reflections

September 10, 2007

This week in Outside the Box, good friend Paul McCulley of PIMCO fame addresses the important topic of fed fund easing. Paul addresses the predicament the current Fed finds itself in on account of not wanting to bail out those who took excessive risk in what he dubs the "shadow banking system," - comprising an alphabet soup of levered non-bank investment conduits, vehicles, and structures. The crux of the matter as Paul highlights is that the 50bp discount rate reduction still remains a penalty...

Vectors of Credit

September 3, 2007

The credit markets are in turmoil. This week I have asked Michael Lewitt of Harch Capital in Florida to tell us what is going on from his perspective. Michael has been watching the credit markets from the inside for a long time. So, this week we have a sort of insider's Outside the Box.

Michael is one smart guy with a deep understanding of the markets, especially the credit markets, and how they work. I really look forward each month to getting Michael's insights. The firm...