If you've been following my newsletter, you're familiar by now with my friend George Friedman and the geopolitical analysis company he founded, Stratfor. And if you've read any of George's work, you know that his entire methodology is based on the premise that the actions of leaders and nations are predictable. George starts with the constraints – what can they not do, assuming they're rational actors – and moves forward from there. It's this methodology that allowed him to – in all seriousness and probably with an impressive amount of accuracy – write a book titled The Next 100 Years.
I've always encouraged my readers to keep up with George's work at Stratfor. His expertise is not in investing, but the understanding of global politics he provides is essential for any global investor. That said, this week George set his sights on the world of investing with a rather harsh accusation: that investors today lack both imagination and an understanding of political economy.
It's always uncomfortable, to say the least, when good thinkers turn a critical eye on your own profession. I don't necessarily agree with George's conclusions, but I respect him enough to give his ideas some careful consideration and share them with my readers. After all, my basic premise with Outside the Box is that there is little to gain by reading only the work of those with whom we agree.
If George's piece makes you think, I recommend you check out Stratfor. They offer a substantial discount on subscriptions to OTB readers, plus a complimentary copy of the aforementioned book, The Next 100 Years, for new subscribers. <<Click here to access the offer.>>
Your not so unimaginative analyst,