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Thoughts From the Frontline, April 2005

Wildness Lies in Wait

April 29, 2005

This week we look at the "The Triumph of Irrational Expectations over Long Run Experience." It is a cautionary tale, but enjoyable in the telling, and one that investors almost invariably ignore to their own chagrin. Also, at the end of this letter, I tell you how to get a free coy of Andy Kessler's book, "How We got Here." This is a book you want to read and then give to your kids.

This past weekend, I along with my partners at Altegris Investments sponsored a conference for...

The More Things Change

April 22, 2005

This is the text of a speech given at the Accelerating Change 2004 conference at Stanford University. The conference organizers asked me to look out over the next 3-4 decades and offer my thoughts as to what the future may look like. A somewhat daunting task, and one guaranteed to failure, as the future always seems to surprise, I nevertheless tried to peer into that dark glass.

La plus ca change, la plus c'est la meme choses.
The more things change, the more things stay the same.


Forecast: The Next Ten Years

April 16, 2005

This week we look at how politics and geopolitical events can affect our investments. We look at a decade-long forecast from one of my favorite information services: I change my view on the euro, talk about a possible Chinese recession and look at uncomfortable analogies between 1900 and today. There's a lot of ground to cover so we will jump right in.

I have had the relative value of currencies on my mind every day for the past two weeks. I have been in London, where the...

Unexpected Returns

April 8, 2005

Writing on the train to Yorkshire from London, I am surrounded by a gorgeous English countryside on a beautiful spring day. Life has its moments. I like the trains in Europe. Quite a civilized way to travel. Yet every time I pull out my wallet, I am reminded of reality. The ebb and flow of the dollar has made this a most expensive country for someone from the states. Nearly everything is the same price, just in pounds instead of dollars. And a pound that is worth more than two of my...

$100 Oil is the Solution

April 1, 2005

How can we go from oil priced in the low teens only a few years ago to oil now holding steady in the mid-50s? This week we have seen a projected price spike of $105 from Goldman Sachs. Can you say $4 a gallon gasoline, boys and girls? $100 to fill up the tank of your SUV? This week we look at the price of oil and why $100 oil is the solution and not the problem.

Since I'm writing this on April 1, I was tempted to start out the letter as an April Fools joke. My topic would have been why...