Outside the Box, June 2005


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Outlook for Rates and the Curve

June 27, 2005

This week's commentary comes from Douglas Greenig of RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, CT. I have been reading his material over the years and always find it solid and thought-provoking.

In this piece, we get one more look at Greenspan's "Conundrum." Douglas looks at some of Greenspan's arguments for the strange behavior of the bond market. He then offers up his own theory of why long rates have stayed low and why they are likely to remain there. Many market watchers, like Bill...

What’s Worrying The Chairman?

June 20, 2005

This week's letter is by Richard Duncan who is based in Hong Kong and is one of the brightest financial analysts I know. Richard is the author of one of my favorite books called The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures. A new paperback edition that is revised and updated is now available at Amazon for under $14.

Richard said this piece is really an updated version of one of the new chapters in The Dollar Crisis. It looks at the federal deficit, the dollar, Greenspan and offers another...

Triple Waterfalls: excerpt from Basic Points

June 13, 2005

This week we look at another interesting essay by Donald Coxe, the Global Portfolio Strategist, BMO Financial Group. He is also the Chairman and Chief Strategist of Harris Investment Management in Chicago, and Chairman of Jones Heward Investments in Toronto. Coxe writes a monthly piece called "Basic Points."

This section of the report looks at what Donald refers to as a Triple Waterfall. This is a similar concept that many readers have seen from me before based on the work of Michael Alexander,...

Rethinking Bonds and Another Conundrum

June 6, 2005

This week's letter is again by one of my favorites, Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley. We will look at two pieces, one from May 31st and another from June 3rd. The first article lays out why Roach is moving from a bond bear to a bull or at least neutral stance. Low inflation, slowing china, and low relative rates in other parts of the world will help keep our long end rates down.

The second article examines the movement of the dollar. If the current account deficit is to narrow, the dollar must...