Outside the Box, September 2005


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Where Should We Put The Greenspan Put?

September 26, 2005

This week we take a look again at my good friend Peter Bernstein, the venerable editor of Economics and Portfolio Strategy. Peter is the dean of economic writers. (Actually, he is more like the Pope of economic writers, except of course, that he is Jewish.) The first and long time editor of the prestigious Journal of Portfolio Management (now serving as a consulting editor), Peter has been observing the investment world for almost 60 years, after serving as a captain in the Air...

Hurricane Katrina

September 19, 2005

This week's letter is from Paul Kasriel of The Northern Trust Company. Kasriel is Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research, responsible for producing the Corporation's economic and interest rate forecasts. He advises the Bank's Assets-Liabilities Committee as well as the Corporation's Investment Policy Committee.

Paul looks at the effect Hurricane Katrina will have on the supply side and the effect the Fed is having on the demand side by raising rates. He thinks...

Pyrrhic Victory

September 12, 2005

Readers know that Paul McCulley of Pimco, and his cohort Bill Gross, are two of my must read economic analysts. Pimco is in Newport Beach, California, and oversee more than $400 Billion in assets, predominately in fixed income.

This is Paul McCulley's August 2005 Fed Focus letter. Several weeks ago I talked about Greenspan's remarks that the Fed was targeting asset prices. There is nothing more he would like to see than the ten-year bond yield rise, but to this point it has been...

The Endogenous Oil Shock

September 5, 2005

One of my favorite economists, Stephen Roach, of Morgan Stanley gives us an insight into what the latest economic shock may mean for the economy. Economic shocks often lead to a fairly predictable slowdown and recovery, but Roach argues that the Fed induced asset bubbles of the last few years may cause this current shock to prick "America's asset economy."

I hope Roach is wrong and that the imbalances in the economy work themselves out slowly rather than popping a bubble, but this...