Outside the Box, October 2006


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Time-Varying Variables Vary

October 30, 2006

Last Friday, I wrote about That Stubborn Yield Curve in my Thoughts from the Frontline letter. In it, I quoted a few paragraphs by Pimco's Paul McCulley, but upon reflection, I feel that his whole letter is worthy of taking a look at more in-depth. Paul writes a monthly commentary, the Global Central Bank Focus that, because of its well-researched and unique perspective, is always at the top of my reading list. As a Managing Director at PIMCO, Paul is an intelligent economist and a...

The Enduring Allure of China

October 26, 2006

Today we cast our eyes on China, and specifically the mass migration of theoretically smart western capital into Chinese banks. This is another of a new series of special editions of "Outside the Box" that will feature the work of my good friends at Stratfor and released every other Thursday.

You can subscribe to Stratfor's Daily services at a 50% discount. I have arranged for those subscribing today to get their new 25 page quarterly predictions and analysis report, where they analyze each...

Just A Little Patience

October 23, 2006

In my Friday letter, Thoughts from the Frontline (you can view it here), we looked at how valuation and prices change over market cycles. As I mentioned and have written about extensively in my book Bull's Eye Investing, market cycles should be viewed in terms of valuation and not prices. But how does one capitalize on such a way of thinking? Today's "Outside the Box" will show how several valuation styles and categories have performed over different time intervals, how each styles compares to...

Temporary versus Permanent Returns

October 16, 2006

Is this the week the Dow will break 12,000? Will we once again see $50 barrel oil? Are we in a Goldilocks economy? These are all questions that investors are confronted with by the financial press. In today's "Outside the Box," we will focus our attention on a well-thought piece by John Hussman, Ph.D. John is the President of Hussman Investment Trust where he manages the Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund - HSTRX and the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund - HSGFX.

In his Weekly Market Comment, John...

U.S. Vulnerability and Windows of Opportunity - Special Edition

October 12, 2006

Today marks the first of a new series of special editions of "Outside the Box" that will feature the work of my good friends at Stratfor and be released every other Thursday. With the war in Iraq, geopolitical controversy over oil dependency, and an ever increasing merging towards a global economy, I feel it timelier than ever to stay up-to-date on the geopolitical landscape as it can have broad implications for both investment and political decision making. Contrary to many of the conflicting...

Quarterly Review and Outlook - Third Quarter 2006

October 9, 2006

This week's "Outside the Box" is by my friends and the always out of the box thinkers at Hoisington Investment Management. In their 3rd quarter market commentary, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt weigh in on a myriad of topics ranging from the data affecting interest rates to housing to the outlook for the dollar. They go on to discuss a correlation between the yield curve and the Leading Economic Index (LEI) that has produced a very accurate track record of predicting recessionary...

Empty Nesting/Successful Investing

October 2, 2006

Hello, hope everyone had a pleasant and enjoyable weekend. We have officially entered the 4th quarter of 2006 and all eyes seem fixated on the major market averages with the stakes being a new all-time high for the DJI. For this week's "Outside the Box," we turn our attention towards a recent article by PIMCO's Managing Director and widely heralded "Bond King," Bill Gross.

Bill currently manages the largest bond fund in the world, the PIMCO Total Return Fund. PIMCO is one of the largest...