Outside the Box, January 2007


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CAPM is CRAP, or, The Dead Parrot lives!

January 29, 2007

Within human nature there is a tendency to search for reasoning or logic to validate our own actions. This holds true in the academic sector as models are derived to provide an answer to a scenario, but sometimes such models do not translate well from the world of academia into that of the real world. This week's Outside the Box is presented by James Montier as he discusses his opinion on how the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) has affected the ways in which investors view and measure...

It’s The Real Interest Rate That Counts

January 22, 2007

Today's "Outside the Box" will feature an essay by good friend David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors. In his article, David discusses what the development of a global economy means for currencies and the financial markets. He distills the foreign exchange markets into 4 major countries and explains both the policies and risks faced by the central banks of these nations, and how they affect you.

David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors (www.cumber.com) in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment...

Rhetoric and Reality: The View from Iran

January 18, 2007

Today's Special Edition of "Outside the Box" by my friends at Stratfor gives us a very insightful analysis of the difference between the rhetoric of Iran and the reality of the world they face. George Friedman, President of Stratfor, dispassionately gives us a look at the world from Iran's point of view. Given the reality of today's political climate, it is important to understand what is going on inside a nation that is giving much of the world so many concerns.

Stratfor is the...

A Look in the Mirror

January 15, 2007

Ancient Chinese philosopher Lao-tzu once said, "He who knows others is wise; he who knows himself is enlightened." Learning to overcome one's own emotions and bias can be one of the single hardest hurdles than an investor faces. It is equally challenging to discern between advice and noise by "experts" in any given field. Today's Outside the Box is written by my good friends Mark and Jonathan Finn where they address some of the psychological difficulties confronted by investors.

For those of...

Quarterly Review and Outlook - Fourth Quarter 2006

January 8, 2007

On Friday, I wrote my annual forecast, "The Goldilocks Recession," on what investment themes I expect in the coming year. This week's Outside the Box will follow up on the subject with an excellent piece written by Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt. In their fourth quarter review of 2006, they address how the current status of the bond market measures up against historical interest rates and inflation. From there, each of the six major sectors of the economy, Personal Consumption Expenditures...

Israel’s Options Against Iran

January 4, 2007

As a set-up to this week's special edition of Outside the Box from Stratfor, let's take a look at a blog from the Middle East Media Research Institute which discusses some recent allegations from the Iranian leadership that the Holocaust did not occur. Quoting:

In a December 28, 2006 interview with the Iranian website Baztab, which is affiliated with Iranian Expediency Council Secretary Mohsen Rezai, Iranian Presidential Advisor Mohammad Ali Ramin said that Hitler was Jewish, and that Hitler's...