Outside the Box, April 2007


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Household Wealth and the US Savings Rate

April 30, 2007

This week's Outside the Box is comprised of 2 smaller articles that I believe will, collectively, provide you with some interesting information to digest. The 1st article will be a follow up piece to last week's Outside the Box where I featured a commentary by Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist Stephen Roach titled "The Missing Link to Global Rebalancing." Kathleen Camilli, the President of Camilli Economics, has weighed in on some of Roach's views by providing a quasi-rebuttal of her own. While...

The Coming Era of Russia’s Dark Rider

April 26, 2007

This week's special edition of Outside the Box is on the looming question of who will become the new leadership in Russia come March of 2008. The country is in a bit of unrest as groups of political activists on multiple fronts recognize an opportunity for a shift of power. I find this Stratfor article to be very relevant in light of the recent death of the former Russian leader Boris Yeltsin.

For those of you unfamiliar with Stratfor, the company is a sort of "private CIA" that provides global...

The Missing Link to Global Rebalancing

April 23, 2007

Over the past couple of years, I've written quite a bit about how the global economy has taken shape and why it is important to understand it when building one's investment portfolio. There have been many market pundits saying that the global economy is out of balance with each individual having some sort of variable solution, whether it be the currency markets, trade relations or productivity growth. Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist, Stephen Roach, has written an excellent article on the...

Meaty Beaty Big and Bouncy

April 16, 2007

Today's Outside the Box is by James Montier of Dresdner Kleinwort. Quite frankly, the research that James discusses surprised me. In his article "Meaty beaty big and bouncy," James dispels what he calls an urban myth that small caps tend to outperform large caps. If you disentangle the size and value effects the difference goes away! James goes on to say that even if you still believe in small cap investing, the fact that small caps are trading at a premium to large caps looks insane to him.

The Limitations and Necessity of Naval Power

April 12, 2007

In this week's Special Edition of Outside the Box, Stratfor President George Friedman discusses the historical role of the U.S. Navy over the course of previous conflicts as well as what type of a role it might play in the future. Just as in economics, a military is forced to make decisions based on an almost infinite number of situations while dealing with a finite amount of resources. Increasing the allocation of resources to one military branch will correspondingly decrease the amount of...

Grim Reality

April 9, 2007

As I glanced over at the TV in my office this morning, the latest news on the ticker wire was that American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (AHM) is trading down over 16%. While the company is not of any particular importance to me, it spurred my thinking regarding how the housing market will affect the economy throughout the remainder of the year. And as I have written it is not really a matter of the housing market affecting the economy so much as it is a matter of tightening credit spreads...

How to Make Big Money: 11 Time-Tested Strategies

April 2, 2007

This week's Outside the Box will be one of the longer ones that have been featured, even despite the current length being approximately half of what it originally was. Now that's no cause for alarm, yet rather a measure of how important I feel this article to be. In his article "How to Make Big Money: 11 Time-Tested Strategies, "Gary Shilling writes about the methods people have used for wealth creation. We are talking about ways to actually make money.

This is one of the more interesting and...