Thoughts from the Frontline: Tag = "Federal Reserve"

Housing Hiccups
  • July 21, 2023

Housing Hiccups

While inflation is technically about general price levels, in practice we use it to describe living costs. That’s why the benchmarks measure consumer prices and personal consumption expenditures. These are where higher prices hurt because they apply to everyone. Other measures like the Producer Price Index have valuable information but are less immediately relevant to most people.

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Endless Intervention
  • June 30, 2023

Endless Intervention

National leaders are (or should be) reluctant to enter wars because, once begun, they are often hard to end. You could be bogged down for years, vainly trying plan after plan as the damage accumulates.

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A Funny Kind of Recession
  • June 23, 2023

A Funny Kind of Recession

I’ve often thought it would be fun to convene a therapy group of weather forecasters and economic forecasters. Both face the same frustration: Everybody wants a clear, simple answer they can’t possibly give, because they don’t know. Then they get blamed for being wrong anyway.

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A Skip, Not a Stop
  • June 16, 2023

A Skip, Not a Stop

A year ago, the US Consumer Price Index was rising at an almost 9% annual rate. The Federal Reserve was trying to change that trend with tighter policy. But it wasn’t just the Fed. All of us—businesses, consumers, everyone—responded to the pain.

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A Rosie Forecast, and More
  • May 5, 2023

A Rosie Forecast, and More

World economic growth is slowing. That’s so obvious, very few will disagree. I suppose there are people out there predicting imminent 1990s-like expansion, but they are few and far between. If recession begins soon, it will be the most anticipated one in history.

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Still Rethinking the Fed
  • April 21, 2023

Still Rethinking the Fed

Back before clocks went digital, you could say “a stopped clock is right twice a day” and even youngsters would know what you meant. A mechanism could be nonfunctional but occasionally correct.

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Inflationary Choices
  • April 14, 2023

Inflationary Choices

Spotting trend changes is the key to economic forecasting. They don’t happen often. Most of the time, this year will be similar to last year. The pace varies but the overall trend continues… until it doesn’t.

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Disturbing Thoughts
  • March 31, 2023

Disturbing Thoughts

Remember when banks were small? Those old enough to have a bank account in the 1970s should. Back then, most people did their banking with a locally owned institution, often the First National Bank of (Your Town).

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Recession Odds Rising
  • March 24, 2023

Recession Odds Rising

Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?

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