- March 8, 2024
Higher for Longer?
“There is a difference between you and me. We both looked into the abyss, but when it looked back at us, you blinked.”
Read moreThoughts from the Frontline: Tag = "maudlin"
- March 1, 2024
When Readers Speak
Today, we have a different kind of letter. I’ve been in California for some rather innovative and hopefully life/health span-extending medical treatment. I’m fine, but it has been a bit tiring. So this week, I’m handing the keyboard to you, my intrepid and smart readers.
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- February 23, 2024
The Good News/Bad News Economy
Recently I saw a T-shirt for sale that said, “Science Doesn’t Care What You Think.” I used a similar metaphor recently, observing how many experiments show that jumping off a cliff will send you rapidly downward. If you want to test that theory, please add me to your will first.
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- February 16, 2024
Choose Your Own Economy
If you’re a parent or grandparent, you may know of the “Choose Your Own Adventure” storybook series. Written in second person, they make “you” the hero. The reader makes choices as the story unfolds, leading to one of several possible endings.
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- February 9, 2024
Desperately Seeking Neutral
One of the more fascinating and mysterious parts of watching the Federal Reserve is the ongoing dialogue between Fed leaders and Wall Street. We imagine private meetings held in great secrecy. Those may in fact occur, but I’m not sure they are even necessary. The parties exchange their requests publicly. All those speeches, interviews, and papers are available to everyone, but have a specific audience in mind.
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- February 2, 2024
Industrial Size Surplus
Modern economies, even small ones, are unfathomably complex. The number of variables is far more than any human can comprehend or any model can track. It’s really no wonder so many forecasts are wrong.
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- January 26, 2024
Going Bang!
In thinking about the 2020s, I often find myself looking back to the 1920s. That decade began with a deep recession/depression and ended with a stock market crash. While we now see the 1920s as a kind of “in between” period, people at the time didn’t know another depression and war were coming. They looked forward to good things and often embraced risk—hence the “Roaring Twenties” label.
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- January 19, 2024
Clashing Crises
“Two is better than one” is a nice saying, but it really depends on what you’re describing. Two hurricanes or earthquakes aren’t better than one. Just one disaster at a time will suffice, thank you very much.
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- January 12, 2024
No Way Out
Having now spent almost six months describing the historical cycles and massive debt that surround us, I find myself looking for an “easy” exit. Maybe one exists, but I haven’t found it yet. I think we’re stuck. The building will have to collapse around us before we can leave.
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- January 5, 2024
A Muddle-Through Year
First, let me wish you the best for the new year. I look forward to exploring it with you.
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